April 4, 2003
NCAA Tournament

	Overall	Conference	Home	Away	Neutral
Minnesota	26-8-9	15-6-7	14-4-6	9-4-3	3-0-0
Michigan	30-9-3	18-7-3	18-2-0	6-5-3	6-2-0
	Goals/Gm.	GA/Gm.	PP Pct.	PK Pct.	PIM/Gm.
Minnesota	4.2 (3rd)	2.8 (17th)	.254 (5th)	.801 (38th)	15.4 (29th)
Michigan	3.9 (6th)	2.4 (T-7th)	.221 (15th)	.889 (2nd)	17.8 (13th)

Minnesota: West Region first seed
Minnesota 9, Mercyhurst 2
Minnesota 7, Ferris State 4

Michigan: Midwest Region third seed
Michigan 2, Maine 1
Michigan 5, Colorado College 3

The comparison up front is a virtual dead heat. Minnesota probably has a slight edge over Michigan with its top six forwards, especially the way the Gophers’ Grant Potulny-Gino Guyer-Barry Tallackson line has played as of late. Every skater outside of Troy Riddle on coach Don Lucia’s top two lines had more than one point last weekend. The Wolverines, meanwhile, got solid efforts from Jed Ortmeyer, Eric Nystrom and Mark Mink en route to the Midwest Regional title, but Jeff Tambellini, John Shouneyia and Dwight Helminen were quiet. Michigan’s fourth line was superb last weekend. If coach Red Berenson’s squad hopes to advance to Saturday’s finale, his third and fourth lines must continue to outplay the opposition.

Minnesota has the advantage on the blue line. Matt DeMarchi and Keith Ballard were outstanding at the West Regional; the games against Mercyhurst and Ferris State were probably Ballard’s best efforts of the season. Paul Martin is as good as they come on defense, freshman Chris Harrington shows flashes of being the latest in a long line of Gopher defensemen with an offensive flair and Judd Stevens and Joey Martin are a capable pair. Stevens is underrated defensively. The Wolverines boast five quality defensemen – Andy Burnes, Nick Martens, Danny Richmond, Mike Roemensky and Brandon Rogers – but they’re not quite to the level of Minnesota’s unit when it comes to skating ability, puck movement and offensive prowess. Burnes is the team’s best defensive defenseman. Martens and Rogers have shown dramatic improvement during their sophomore campaigns. Richmond is gifted offensively, but struggles at times in his own end.

If Michigan’s Al Montoya is as sharp as he was in the Midwest Regional, the Wolverines have an excellent chance of winning. He made all the routine saves, mixed in a handful of highlight-reel efforts and minimized the fat rebounds and puck-handling mistakes that have hurt him in the past. He won’t have the benefit of playing in front of a supportive, confident crowd in Buffalo, but his confidence is soaring right now. If he had his druthers, Montoya probably would’ve liked to play this game last Tuesday. For Minnesota, Travis Weber returned from the finger injury that kept him from playing in the WCHA Final Five. He was anything but brilliant in the West Regional – four goals allowed on 32 shots in 100 minutes of work – but he didn’t have to be. He’s capable of better, but isn’t the kind of goalie who can steal a game. Justin Johnson, who played well in Weber’s absence, gave up two goals on six shots in 20 minutes against Ferris State.

Predictably, Minnesota has the better power play and are lethal when opponents take a minor, but their penalty kill leaves something to be desired. The Wolverines have a decent power play and were 2-of-10 with the extra man in the Midwest Regional, but one of the goals was an empty-netter against Colorado College. The Tigers had the Wolverines’ power play out of sync for the majority of the game, so much so that Michigan didn’t generate any quality chances during an early two-man advantage. Michigan’s penalty kill has been among the nation’s best all year, but CC got two easy goals thanks to superior puck movement, something the Gophers can duplicate, especially with guys like Ballard and Martin on the point.

Both Berenson and Lucia have won national championships, and both have done a wonderful job of keeping their young teams (you’ll probably see a total of six seniors on the ice Thursday) on course despite injuries, suspensions and mid-season departures. Lucia has more talent in his corner, but Berenson’s charges are playing as if winning the national championship is their destiny. Neither team has a strategic advantage: these coaches are just too good.

WHY MICHIGAN WINS: Because, like a bad penny, they keep turning up. Seriously, just when you think someone is about to put them away, they somehow conjure up a win. In this “year of the team” at the Frozen Four, the Wolverines are the best example of that philosophy. As Berenson said following the win against Colorado College, everyone does their jobs and a few players go above and beyond expectations. That mindset – and a repeat performance from Al Montoya – gets Michigan past Minnesota.

WHY MINNESOTA WINS: Another line from the Berenson cliché book says his team excels when his best players are his best players. That being said, the Wolverines’ best players aren’t as good as the Gophers’ best players…and Lucia has more arrows in his quiver than his Bum Phillips-coiffed counterpart. If Minnesota’s top two lines can outplay Michigan’s top units, Ballard and Martin play up to their capabilities and Weber is merely adequate, expect another spelling lesson – M-I-N-N-E-S-O-T-A – at HSBC Arena Saturday.